Die digitale Glaskugel

Stellen Sie sich vor, es geschieht ein Einbruch und die Polizei ist schon da. Weil sie bereits vor dem Einbruch weiß, wo die nächste Straftat verübt wird. Und was wäre, wenn es einen Vorhersagemarkt für Regierungen gäbe, die immer schon wissen, was passieren wird – und das Geschehen deshalb verhindern oder befördern können?
Schnapsidee oder ein großes Projekt oder beides?

Ein Beitrag über Big Data und Predictive Politics nachstehend in der Anlage: Die digitale Glaskugel


Max Biederbeck, 23. Juni 2016, Lassen sich Kriege und Terror berechnen, bevor sie passieren? WIRED.de. Abgerufen am 28.12.2016.

N.F. Johnson, M. Zheng, Y. Vorobyeva, A. Gabriel, H. Qi, N. Velasquez, P. Manrique, D. Johnson, E. Restrepo, C. Song, S. Wuchty (2016). New online ecology of adversarial aggregates: ISIS and beyond. Science, 17 June 2016: 1459-1463.


Information sharing and communication in the Intelligence Community

Excellent 2013 thesis on information sharing in the US intelligence community (NCTC) by Bridget Rose Nolan , I have been referred to by Dalene Duvenage (Pretoria).

Summary: „The National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) was established to serve as the primary  organization in the U.S. Government for the integration, sharing, and analysis of all terrorism and counterterrorism intelligence. To date, no study has sought to illustrate whether and how NCTC overcomes the barriers to information sharing among agencies and the people that comprise them. The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the micro-level ways in which intelligence work is conducted in a post-9/11 world and to examine the circumstances that both facilitate and discourage collaboration. By presenting detailed ethnographic evidence and the in-depth interview perspectives of the people who actually do this work daily, this study provides a sociological analysis and discussion of best practices to help identify ways in which NCTC can move closer to fulfilling its mission.“

A very interesting read that dives right into discourse analysis and observations on organizational culture.

Comparable analyses in the public domain for Europe usually are much less detailled, such as Sven Litzke’s and Horst Schuh’s 2001 study on Nachrichtendienste“ as learning organizations (in German).

Recently, Bob de Graaff’s and James M. Nyce’s „Handbook of European Intelligence Cultures“ (published 2016) provides a good launch point for further research.


Moral Reasoning by Terrorists

See further down a groundbreaking empirical study on terrorist mindsets published in „Nature. Human Behaviour“ recently. Results offer new perspectives for threat assessment und prevention:

„We found that moral judgement in terrorists is abnormally guided by outcomes rather than by the integration of intentions and outcomes. This pattern was partially related to emotion recognition and proactive aggression scores but independent from other cognitive domains. In addition, moral judgement was the measure that best discriminated between terrorists and non-criminals.“ (Source: summary)