Moral Reasoning by Terrorists

See further down a groundbreaking empirical study on terrorist mindsets published in „Nature. Human Behaviour“ recently. Results offer new perspectives for threat assessment und prevention:

„We found that moral judgement in terrorists is abnormally guided by outcomes rather than by the integration of intentions and outcomes. This pattern was partially related to emotion recognition and proactive aggression scores but independent from other cognitive domains. In addition, moral judgement was the measure that best discriminated between terrorists and non-criminals.“ (Source: summary)



A valuable resource with verified data

Attacks in 2016 up 27.5% on 2015

„Open-source event data collected and verified over the course of 2016 by Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (JTIC), recorded a total of 24,202 attacks by non-state armed groups and individuals, and a total of 27,697 non-militant fatalities.

These figures represented a notable 27.5% increase from the recorded number of attacks in 2015, and a corresponding slight 5.9% decrease in the number of non-militant fatalities.

These figures were driven by noteworthy increases in tempo in low-intensity conflicts, particularly in eastern Ukraine, alongside a minor decrease in large-scale or mass-casualty attacks.“ (Source: IHS Markit)

‘Criminalised’ Islamic State Veterans – A Future Major Threat in Organised Crime Development?

Please take note of this interesting piece of research in the current issue of „Perspectives on Terrorism„: „This article considers the implications of criminalised Muslim Diaspora community members from the West travelling to the Middle East and becoming involved in the terrorist activities of the Islamic State (IS), and ultimately returning from whence they came. It also reflects on the differences over time amongst the profile of recruits that have taken place since the time of the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan, to the ascendancy of IS. Recent research indicates both terrorist and organised crime groups draw recruits from the same Diaspora communities, a position supported in this article. While the focus of law enforcement and media attention appears to be on the potential of Islamic State Middle East veterans committing terrorist acts in the West on returning from conflict zones, there may well be a pervasive danger of them bringing significant risk to their countries of origin through enhanced participation in organised crime. The views of a selection of recently retired police professionals were gathered, and were found to support concerns around this potential significant and dangerous outcome of homecoming foreign fighters.“ (Source: abstract)


Patterns of Islamic State-Related Terrorism, 2002 – 2015

See the new START-report here!

„This report presents data that illustrate the dynamics of Islamic State-related terrorism over time and place from 2002 to 2015, including trends in the number of attacks and deaths caused by ISIL-related terrorism, the geographic spread of ISIL-related terrorism, and patterns of tactics, targets, and lethality of ISIL-related terrorism. “ (Source: START)

Neue Risk Management Lösungen: OSINT, Länderrisiken und Reise-Sicherheit

Jenseits der für den deutschen Raum – gerade unter Preis-/Leistungs-Aspekten wegweisenden Traxpat-Lösung für Reisesicherheit und taktisches Krisenmanagement bieten sich für OSINT-Anwendungen auch Echosec (für geo-basierte Suchen) und gegebenenfalls im angloamerikanischen Raum auch operative Produkte von NC4 oder iJet an.

TRAXPAT: „Der traxpat® Global Risk Monitor ist ein globales 24/7 Krisen-Informationssystem, mit dessen Hilfe kritische Ereignisse weltweit detektiert, analysiert und über ein Geoinformationssystem dargestellt werden. Kommunikation und Alarmierung erfolgen automatisiert. Ereignisse der folgenden Kategorien werden georeferenziert abgebildet:

  • Meteorologie, Umwelt, Geologie
  • Politik/Sicherheit
  • Technologie, Transport
  • Biologie, Gesundheit
  • Komplexe Notfälle.

Über unternehmensspezifische Layer können Zusatzinformationen wie z.B. Länderdaten, Flughäfen, Krankenhäuser, Gesundheitsinformationen, Reisewarnungen und Risikobewertungen eingebunden und verknüpft werden.“ (Quelle: Website)

NC4: „NC4 Signal™ is a social media monitoring tool that is designed to filter through the endless flow of information across major social media platforms, like Twitter and Facebook, and presents you with a customized stream of rich, relevant data in real-time. NC4 Signal provides law enforcement, public safety and emergency management with the ability to leverage social media in developing intelligent insight. Delivered through the Microsoft Azure Government cloud, it is available anywhere, anytime from any web-enabled device.“ (Quelle: Website)

iJet: „iJET’s Global Intelligence solutions are designed to protect your personnel and help to ensure continuity of operations. (…) Our Global Integrated Operations Center (GIOC) is founded upon best practice methodologies pioneered by the world’s most advanced intelligence organizations, and staffed by analysts and subject matter experts with diverse backgrounds appropriate for supporting our nine threat categories – Entry-Exit, Communications/Technology, Legal, Financial, Environment, Culture, Health, Security and Transportation. We maintain an in-depth intelligence database on more than 191 countries and 363 cities. Our expert analysts monitor the globe in 30 languages, 24 hours a day, to ensure that our clients have the best information available to aid in critical decision-making.

  • Worldcue Global Control Center: iJET’s global intelligence subscription-based products available in a single tool that allows clients to prepare for, monitor and respond to threats that may impact their people and assets around the world.
  • Intelligence Alerts: SMS- and email-based notifications ensure clients are aware of potentially dangerous or disruptive incidents before they occur, or as they unfold in real-time.
  • Daily Intelligence Brief: Released at 0630 EST, Monday-Friday, this tactical product covers recent developments by region and includes all alerts and situation reports from the previous 24 hours.
  • Health Intelligence Monitor: iJET’s weekly publication capturing the latest intelligence on a range of diseases, and more deeply exploring recent developments in the field of travel medicine.
  • Monthly Intelligence Forecast: Designed as a more long-term, strategic outlook, this publication offers our clients a 30-90-day assessment of key regional developments.
  • Airline Safety Newsletter & Worldcue Airline Monitor: iJET’s Worldcue® Airline Monitor and quarterly Airline Safety Newsletter provide business leaders with two powerful tools to make decisions about airline carrier safety and help reduce travel risk across the entire organization.“ (Quelle: Website)

Wer Intelligence-Support auf der strategischen Ebene sucht, der wird möglicherweise – neben den bereits in diesem Blog diskutierten Angeboten von Recorded Future oder (für Web-Intelligence) Blab auch das Leistungsspektrum von Predata prüfen:

Predata: „Subscribers to the full Predata platform receive access to the prediction engine, which runs regressions between signals and event sets to identify sources indicative of volatility and build predictive indicators based on them. Predictions can be run using current data or benchmarked using historical data to calculate standard statistical measures of efficacy.“ (Quelle: Website)

Der hier verlinkte Bloomberg-Beitrag – das Medien-Unternehmen nutzt selbst die Dienstleistungen von Predata – gibt interessante Hintergrundinformationen. Die folgende Grafik verdeutlicht die Logik-des Systems am Beispiel des Social Media-Pegels zu unterschiedlichen Terror-Anschlägen.


Multiple Bedrohungsszenarien

Auf dem Internet-Auftritt der Proteus Secur Consulting & Solutions GmbH finden Sie einen Kommentar von Dr. Pantaleon Fassbender zu möglichen Konsequenzen für das Sicherheitsmanagement aus den Brüsseler Anschlägen:

„Stärker als bisher müssen multiple Bedrohungsszenarien berücksichtigt werden, die von der Mega-Attacke bis zur Entführung von hochrangigen Entscheidungsträgern oder Experten reichen können. Insofern gilt es – gerade für Sicherheitsverantwortliche von Unternehmen – das bisherige Bild der Daesh-/IS-Bedrohung im Westen deutlich differenzierter zu betrachten. Mit einer Wende von den dezentralen Angriffen der letzten Jahre hin zu möglicherweise deutlich stärker zentral koordinierten Schlägen bedarf es einer präziseren Risikobewertung und Beurteilung der Daesh-Strategie. Diese Einschätzung müsste vor allem – das wäre jedenfalls die Lehre für Berichterstattung und Journalismus – nicht beim ewig gleichen Blick auf die Fassade des vermeintlich irrationalen Wahnsinnigen stehen bleiben, sondern hinter diese Maske schauen und das strategische Kalkül der asymmetrischen Bedrohung durch den sogenannten Islamischen Staat freilegen!“