New analysis about IS on twitter

See a new piece of analysis by RAND-researchers analyzing communication dynamics and Twitter-communities with regard to IS-followers and IS-opponents.

While showing methodically the power of big data social network analysis for counterterrorism comms, the study’s recommendations are especially noteworthy:

  • „Twitter should continue its campaign of account suspensions: This campaign likely harasses ISIS Twitter users, forces them to lose valuable time reacquiring followers, and may ultimately push some to use social media channels that are far less public and accessible than Twitter.
  • U.S. military Information Support Operations planners, as well as State Department messengers, should continue to highlight ISIS atrocities. The Twitter impact of the burning of the Jordanian pilot as well as previous findings suggesting a relation between ISIS atrocities and ISIS opposition on Twitter indicate that such atrocities may galvanize opponents.
  • Nations and organizations (such as U.S. military and State Department messengers) looking to countermessage ISIS on Twitter should tailor messages for and target them to specific communities: The ISIS Twitter universe is highly fragmented and consists of different communities that care about different topics.“ (Source: summary)

We will see how these findings impact twitter info wars in the future!

RAND_RR1328

Neue Risk Management Lösungen: OSINT, Länderrisiken und Reise-Sicherheit

Jenseits der für den deutschen Raum – gerade unter Preis-/Leistungs-Aspekten wegweisenden Traxpat-Lösung für Reisesicherheit und taktisches Krisenmanagement bieten sich für OSINT-Anwendungen auch Echosec (für geo-basierte Suchen) und gegebenenfalls im angloamerikanischen Raum auch operative Produkte von NC4 oder iJet an.

TRAXPAT: „Der traxpat® Global Risk Monitor ist ein globales 24/7 Krisen-Informationssystem, mit dessen Hilfe kritische Ereignisse weltweit detektiert, analysiert und über ein Geoinformationssystem dargestellt werden. Kommunikation und Alarmierung erfolgen automatisiert. Ereignisse der folgenden Kategorien werden georeferenziert abgebildet:

  • Meteorologie, Umwelt, Geologie
  • Politik/Sicherheit
  • Technologie, Transport
  • Biologie, Gesundheit
  • Komplexe Notfälle.

Über unternehmensspezifische Layer können Zusatzinformationen wie z.B. Länderdaten, Flughäfen, Krankenhäuser, Gesundheitsinformationen, Reisewarnungen und Risikobewertungen eingebunden und verknüpft werden.“ (Quelle: Website)

NC4: „NC4 Signal™ is a social media monitoring tool that is designed to filter through the endless flow of information across major social media platforms, like Twitter and Facebook, and presents you with a customized stream of rich, relevant data in real-time. NC4 Signal provides law enforcement, public safety and emergency management with the ability to leverage social media in developing intelligent insight. Delivered through the Microsoft Azure Government cloud, it is available anywhere, anytime from any web-enabled device.“ (Quelle: Website)

iJet: „iJET’s Global Intelligence solutions are designed to protect your personnel and help to ensure continuity of operations. (…) Our Global Integrated Operations Center (GIOC) is founded upon best practice methodologies pioneered by the world’s most advanced intelligence organizations, and staffed by analysts and subject matter experts with diverse backgrounds appropriate for supporting our nine threat categories – Entry-Exit, Communications/Technology, Legal, Financial, Environment, Culture, Health, Security and Transportation. We maintain an in-depth intelligence database on more than 191 countries and 363 cities. Our expert analysts monitor the globe in 30 languages, 24 hours a day, to ensure that our clients have the best information available to aid in critical decision-making.

  • Worldcue Global Control Center: iJET’s global intelligence subscription-based products available in a single tool that allows clients to prepare for, monitor and respond to threats that may impact their people and assets around the world.
  • Intelligence Alerts: SMS- and email-based notifications ensure clients are aware of potentially dangerous or disruptive incidents before they occur, or as they unfold in real-time.
  • Daily Intelligence Brief: Released at 0630 EST, Monday-Friday, this tactical product covers recent developments by region and includes all alerts and situation reports from the previous 24 hours.
  • Health Intelligence Monitor: iJET’s weekly publication capturing the latest intelligence on a range of diseases, and more deeply exploring recent developments in the field of travel medicine.
  • Monthly Intelligence Forecast: Designed as a more long-term, strategic outlook, this publication offers our clients a 30-90-day assessment of key regional developments.
  • Airline Safety Newsletter & Worldcue Airline Monitor: iJET’s Worldcue® Airline Monitor and quarterly Airline Safety Newsletter provide business leaders with two powerful tools to make decisions about airline carrier safety and help reduce travel risk across the entire organization.“ (Quelle: Website)

Wer Intelligence-Support auf der strategischen Ebene sucht, der wird möglicherweise – neben den bereits in diesem Blog diskutierten Angeboten von Recorded Future oder (für Web-Intelligence) Blab auch das Leistungsspektrum von Predata prüfen:

Predata: „Subscribers to the full Predata platform receive access to the prediction engine, which runs regressions between signals and event sets to identify sources indicative of volatility and build predictive indicators based on them. Predictions can be run using current data or benchmarked using historical data to calculate standard statistical measures of efficacy.“ (Quelle: Website)

Der hier verlinkte Bloomberg-Beitrag – das Medien-Unternehmen nutzt selbst die Dienstleistungen von Predata – gibt interessante Hintergrundinformationen. Die folgende Grafik verdeutlicht die Logik-des Systems am Beispiel des Social Media-Pegels zu unterschiedlichen Terror-Anschlägen.

Quelle: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/this-startup-is-predicting-the-future-by-decoding-the-past#media-2

Moderne OSINT-Tools

Proteus Secur Consulting and Solutions GmbH arbeitet an einem Überblick über online-gestützte Verfahren und Anbieter von Open Source Intelligence, die sich mit der Analyse und Bewertung von Sicherheitsrisiken und ihrer Dynamik in sozialen Netzwerken und georeferenzierten Suchmaschinen befassen. Zu den Unternehmen im Fokus gehören z.B.:

  • das schwedisch-amerikanische Start-Up Recorded Future
  • und der Predictive Intelligence-Spezialist BLAB aus Seattle/USA
  • sowie die Geo-Suchmaschine Echosec.
  • Im erweiterten Fokus liegen OSINT-Instrumente, wie z.B. SHODAN oder die Datenbankrecherchen, die investigative dashboard erlaubt.

Echosec, or: on the uselfulness of geo-tagged social media search for security and crisis management

Over on their blog, the people from Echosec, provider of location-based search, have shortly dipped into the potential of geo-tagged social media analysis, when looking at the recent Paris terror attacks during the lens of advanced search-tools.

It is obvious that in the future any kind of structured threat-assessment (e.g., as in personal security and protection or travel security) will have to rely on comparable tools for threat management and risk scanning.

In terms of developing such a toolset for risk and security management cockpits, it will have to cover macro level analysis (see e.g. Stratfor or other providers), should be able to generate short term intelligence on temporal and geo-spatial patterns for crisis assessment (such as Echosec or utilizing the forward-looking capabilities of Blab) and it will need to deep dive into the internet for subtle crisis signals and longer-term build-up of critical situations (e.g. by the help of Recorded Future).

Looking at the corporate security staffing needs many European companies face, when setting the scene for a pro-actively managed global risk landscape, there seems to be quite some room for improvement!

Global Terrorism Index 2014 released

The Institute for Economics and Peace recently has released their 2014 Global Terrorism Index. Well, it’s not just another report. Please have a look at it for the sound analytics behind the expertise and take Your time to reflect on their empirical study on Peace and Religion (a global statistical analysis on the empirical link between peace and religion) as well!

Find both free reports here and keep reading:

Global Terrorism Index Report 2014_0

Peace and Religion Report

It’s getting crowded in the niche of predictive intelligence and web-based future forecasting

… well, somewhat at least, as there is no longer only Recorded Future on the playing field.

They are ahead of the crowd, as they have rapidly expanded and promoted the integration of other services with their offerings (such as imaging, ethnographic sentiment analysis or forensic data analysis software), making higher value-offerings as well as conceding (at least as subtle byline) that the new toys are by themselves not as far-reaching, as expected …

But, while Google ventures-backed Recorded Future aims high at the intelligence and security communities, Seattle-based Blab seems to be targeting primarily those who want to see the next shitstorm coming right ahead (as a comment at „Gruenderszene“ aptly states it).

Want to try another angle? Look at renewed efforts to bring crowd-based intelligence prediction to life, e.g. as EMBERS is going to do (with an excellent overview on their background research-papers here)!