Die digitale Glaskugel

Stellen Sie sich vor, es geschieht ein Einbruch und die Polizei ist schon da. Weil sie bereits vor dem Einbruch weiß, wo die nächste Straftat verübt wird. Und was wäre, wenn es einen Vorhersagemarkt für Regierungen gäbe, die immer schon wissen, was passieren wird – und das Geschehen deshalb verhindern oder befördern können?
Schnapsidee oder ein großes Projekt oder beides?

Ein Beitrag über Big Data und Predictive Politics nachstehend in der Anlage: Die digitale Glaskugel

Quellen

Max Biederbeck, 23. Juni 2016, Lassen sich Kriege und Terror berechnen, bevor sie passieren? WIRED.de. Abgerufen am 28.12.2016.

N.F. Johnson, M. Zheng, Y. Vorobyeva, A. Gabriel, H. Qi, N. Velasquez, P. Manrique, D. Johnson, E. Restrepo, C. Song, S. Wuchty (2016). New online ecology of adversarial aggregates: ISIS and beyond. Science, 17 June 2016: 1459-1463.

Information sharing and communication in the Intelligence Community

Excellent 2013 thesis on information sharing in the US intelligence community (NCTC) by Bridget Rose Nolan , I have been referred to by Dalene Duvenage (Pretoria).

Summary: „The National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) was established to serve as the primary  organization in the U.S. Government for the integration, sharing, and analysis of all terrorism and counterterrorism intelligence. To date, no study has sought to illustrate whether and how NCTC overcomes the barriers to information sharing among agencies and the people that comprise them. The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the micro-level ways in which intelligence work is conducted in a post-9/11 world and to examine the circumstances that both facilitate and discourage collaboration. By presenting detailed ethnographic evidence and the in-depth interview perspectives of the people who actually do this work daily, this study provides a sociological analysis and discussion of best practices to help identify ways in which NCTC can move closer to fulfilling its mission.“

A very interesting read that dives right into discourse analysis and observations on organizational culture.

Comparable analyses in the public domain for Europe usually are much less detailled, such as Sven Litzke’s and Horst Schuh’s 2001 study on Nachrichtendienste“ as learning organizations (in German).

Recently, Bob de Graaff’s and James M. Nyce’s „Handbook of European Intelligence Cultures“ (published 2016) provides a good launch point for further research.

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Moral Reasoning by Terrorists

See further down a groundbreaking empirical study on terrorist mindsets published in „Nature. Human Behaviour“ recently. Results offer new perspectives for threat assessment und prevention:

„We found that moral judgement in terrorists is abnormally guided by outcomes rather than by the integration of intentions and outcomes. This pattern was partially related to emotion recognition and proactive aggression scores but independent from other cognitive domains. In addition, moral judgement was the measure that best discriminated between terrorists and non-criminals.“ (Source: summary)

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A valuable resource with verified data

Attacks in 2016 up 27.5% on 2015

„Open-source event data collected and verified over the course of 2016 by Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (JTIC), recorded a total of 24,202 attacks by non-state armed groups and individuals, and a total of 27,697 non-militant fatalities.

These figures represented a notable 27.5% increase from the recorded number of attacks in 2015, and a corresponding slight 5.9% decrease in the number of non-militant fatalities.

These figures were driven by noteworthy increases in tempo in low-intensity conflicts, particularly in eastern Ukraine, alongside a minor decrease in large-scale or mass-casualty attacks.“ (Source: IHS Markit)

New analysis about IS on twitter

See a new piece of analysis by RAND-researchers analyzing communication dynamics and Twitter-communities with regard to IS-followers and IS-opponents.

While showing methodically the power of big data social network analysis for counterterrorism comms, the study’s recommendations are especially noteworthy:

  • „Twitter should continue its campaign of account suspensions: This campaign likely harasses ISIS Twitter users, forces them to lose valuable time reacquiring followers, and may ultimately push some to use social media channels that are far less public and accessible than Twitter.
  • U.S. military Information Support Operations planners, as well as State Department messengers, should continue to highlight ISIS atrocities. The Twitter impact of the burning of the Jordanian pilot as well as previous findings suggesting a relation between ISIS atrocities and ISIS opposition on Twitter indicate that such atrocities may galvanize opponents.
  • Nations and organizations (such as U.S. military and State Department messengers) looking to countermessage ISIS on Twitter should tailor messages for and target them to specific communities: The ISIS Twitter universe is highly fragmented and consists of different communities that care about different topics.“ (Source: summary)

We will see how these findings impact twitter info wars in the future!

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Patterns of Islamic State-Related Terrorism, 2002 – 2015

See the new START-report here!

„This report presents data that illustrate the dynamics of Islamic State-related terrorism over time and place from 2002 to 2015, including trends in the number of attacks and deaths caused by ISIL-related terrorism, the geographic spread of ISIL-related terrorism, and patterns of tactics, targets, and lethality of ISIL-related terrorism. “ (Source: START)