Statistical Assessments of Coup Risk for 2015

Please read – very interesting: content-wise and methodologically!

Dart-Throwing Chimp

Which countries around the world are more likely to see coup attempts in 2015?

For the fourth year in a row, I’ve used statistical models to generate one answer to that question, where a coup is defined more or less as a forceful seizure of national political authority by military or political insiders. (I say „more or less“ because I’m blending data from two sources with slightly different definitions; see below for details.) A coup doesn’t need to succeed to count as an attempt, but it does need to involve public action; alleged plots and rumors of plots don’t qualify. Neither do insurgencies or foreign invasions, which by definition involve military or political outsiders. The heat map below shows variation in estimated coup risk for 2015, with countries colored by quintiles (fifths).

forecast.heatmap.2015

The dot plot below shows the estimates and their 90-percent confidence intervals (CIs) for the 40 countries with…

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