„I still suspect that future historians may conclude that when Putin took Crimea he lost not only Ukraine but, ultimately, the Kremlin“

The above quote is from mark Galeotti’s blog „In Moscow’s Shadows“ and he refers to his recent lecture in London on „The Military Dimension of Russia’s Policy toward Ukraine: Should the West Be Worried?

Of course, there is still an abundance of expert opinions on Russia, Ukraine, and the future of both and Crimea, but I especially like his expertise at the interface of politics and security and the way he is going to present his analyses. Have a look for Yourself!

And there is another related link: Recorded Future is going to re-polish a – at least for some observers – slightly tarnished reputation, as this well set-up prediction machine didn’t fare better than a great bunch of analysts who hadn’t expected the unfolding of the Crimean crisis, either.

So, they started again with some classical analytical reasoning, having had a decent look at base rates and now come back with the conclusion that it was in the data steam, but they only have found out later

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