The above quote is from mark Galeotti’s blog „In Moscow’s Shadows“ and he refers to his recent lecture in London on „The Military Dimension of Russia’s Policy toward Ukraine: Should the West Be Worried?“
Of course, there is still an abundance of expert opinions on Russia, Ukraine, and the future of both and Crimea, but I especially like his expertise at the interface of politics and security and the way he is going to present his analyses. Have a look for Yourself!
And there is another related link: Recorded Future is going to re-polish a – at least for some observers – slightly tarnished reputation, as this well set-up prediction machine didn’t fare better than a great bunch of analysts who hadn’t expected the unfolding of the Crimean crisis, either.
So, they started again with some classical analytical reasoning, having had a decent look at base rates and now come back with the conclusion that it was in the data steam, but they only have found out later …